08-01-12 Reckless talk of war with Iran makes confrontation a probability

The temperature between the West and Iran has increased dramatically.Escalation by both sides coupled with a reckless discourse that has normalised the idea of war have created an environment where military confrontation is a rising probability.The next escalatory step pondered by Europe - in the midst of its own economic crisis - is a total embargo on Iranian oil.An idea that a few months ago was considered a non-starter now has an air of inevitability.anctions are rarely effective.But right before their imposition - at the moment where they remain a withdrawable threat - their effectiveness is at their height.The challenge with multilateral sanctions,however,is that the diplomatic resources required to create concensus around sanctions are so great that once the sanctions threat gains momentum,the commitment of the sanctioning countries to this path tends to become irreversible.Rather than utilising the threat of sanctions to compel a change in policy, they tend to confuse the means with the goal.Backing down from the threat becomes too costly so sanctions become unstoppable - and ineffective.This is what happened in May 2010 when the Obama administration and the EU opted for a new round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran even though Tehran at the last moment succumbed to Western demands on a fuel swap offer(Trita Parsi)